Macro Roundup (Mar 12)

SHANGHAI, Mar 12 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last Friday night

Base metals rose across the board as the US dollar slipped. SHFE nickel jumped over 4% and copper and zinc rose over 1%. LME metals, except tin, rebounded from touching a low at one point. Nickel saw the biggest growth since February. Copper, zinc and lead rose about 2%

China’s broad M2 money supply in February grew 8.8% from a year earlier, beating forecasts of 8.7% and 8.6% in January. However, China’s new loans in February grew 839.3 billion yuan, much less than the 2.9 trillion in January. Total social financing (TSF) fell to 1.17 trillion yuan in February, from 3.06 trillion yuan in January.

The China’s consumer price index (CPI) in February grew 2.9% year on year to reach a high since November 2013. It grew 0.6 percentage points in growth month on month. The year on year increase was driven by this year's CNY in February, compared to an earlier CNY in January in previous years. The month on month growth was buoyed by robust consumption during CNY and as the cold weather limited the production and shipping of agricultural products.

US nonfarm payrolls in February rose by 313,000, while the monthly rate of average hourly earnings in February gained only 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%. This reflected modest support to inflation and a correspondingly slower increase in interest rates.

US rigs drilling for crude oil fell by 4 units to 796 over the week that ended March 9, while the active US rigs drilling for natural gas rose by 8 units, reported Baker Hughes. US inventories of natural gas fell by 57 billion cubic feet over the week ended March 2, reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Day ahead

Several countries will be affected by daylight savings adjustments today.

As the possibility of a trade war looms, the US dollar is expected to remain above 90 in the short term. Base metals are also likely to trade rangebound today.

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