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SMM Morning Comments (Feb 22)
Feb 22,2018 09:57CST
price review forecast
SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Feb 22 (SMM) –

Copper: While LME copper rebounded and hit a high at $7,144.5/mt overnight, a possibly stronger US dollar poses risks following the Federal Reserve Board’s hint of interest rates increase. We expect LME copper to trade at $7,050-7,160/mt today with SHFE copper at 52,500-53,500 yuan/mt today. In the physical market, spot discounts are seen smaller at 200-150 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: LME aluminium traded rangebound during the Chinese New Year holiday as the US mulled over various levies on aluminium imports while inventory continued to grow. The contract is supported by the 60-day moving average but sees pressure at the 40-day moving average. We expect LME aluminium to trade at $2,185-2,215/mt today and SHFE aluminium at 14,080-14,250 yuan/mt. Spot discounts are seen at 240-200 yuan/mt.

Nickel: With LME nickel inventory falling to 337,000 mt and a rebound in downstream consumption post-Chinese New Year, we expect the SHFE 1805 nickel to be firm at 104,000-105,500 yuan/mt today and spot prices at 103,300-104,500 yuan/mt.

Zinc: LME zinc stayed above $3,500/mt during the Chinese New Year holiday with support of low inventory. We expect the contract to trade at $3,515-3,565/mt today. As the Chinese market reopens, we see limited upward room in SHFE zinc and expect it to trade at 26,650-27,150 yuan/mt today. In the physical market, the 0# common brand is set to trade at a discount of 100-80 yuan/mt and Shuangyan brand at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to flat.

Lead: We see LME lead to come off and trade at $2,550-2,590/mt today, around the five-, 10- and 20-day moving averages level. We expect SHFE lead to be rangebound today, trading at 19,150-19,350 yuan/mt.


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