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SMM Morning Comments (Feb 14)
Feb 14,2018 09:39CST
price review forecast
SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Feb 14 (SMM) –

Copper: Copper prices rebounded following the global stock market rally and a decline in LME inventory. While investors are expected to close out their positions on the SHFE on the last trading day before Chinese New Year, we see SHFE copper to trade at 52,200-52,800 yuan/mt today. LME copper is still likely to hit the $7,000/mt level in the short term. In the physical market, spot discounts are seen stable at 350-250 yuan/mt.

Nickel: LME nickel inventory fell for the 16th consecutive day to 339,000 mt, lowest level since mid-September 2014. We expect SHFE nickel to trade at 101,500-103,000 yuan/mt today with spot prices at 101,300-102,500 yuan/mt.

Zinc: We expect the SHFE 1804 zinc contract to trade at 26,100-26,600 yuan/mt today and LME zinc at $3,440-3,490/mt as both contracts move up steadily. In the physical market, the 0# common brand is set to trade at a discount of 90-70 yuan/mt and Shuangyan brand at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to flat.

Aluminium: LME aluminium inventory saw a major increase yesterday to 1.28 million mt. We expect LME aluminium to trade at $2,120-2,150/mt with pressure from the five- and 60-day moving averages today. SHFE aluminium is expected to continue to test support at the five- and 10-day moving averages level with trading range at 14,300-14,450 yuan/mt. Spot discounts are seen at 260-220 yuan/mt.

Tin: SHFE tin is set to be stable and trade at 147,500-149,000 yuan/mt today while LME tin sees support at the $21,000/mt level and resistance at $22,000/mt level.

Lead: We expect SHFE lead to be rangebound today, trading at 19,050-19,300 yuan/mt with strong resistance at the 19,300 yuan/mt level.


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