Analysis: Downside risks ahead as nickel price climbs

Published: Jan 25, 2018 15:25

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While the LME nickel price is likely to go up further to $13,800-14,000/mt as stainless steel mills continued to restock, SMM believes there is downside risk around March and April

SHANGHAI, Jan 25 (SMM)－While the LME nickel price is likely to go up further to $13,800-14,000/mt as stainless steel mills continued to restock ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, SMM believes there is downside risk around March and April.

This would be mainly due to the increase in Indonesian nickel ore supply and less maintenance work at nickel pig iron (NPI) plants.

In addition, stainless steel mills would find it increasingly difficult to make profits as nickel prices rise further. Based on the current, high inventories of stainless steel, we believe the increased downstream demand after Chinese New Year is unlikely to drive up stainless steel prices. This means that these mills are likely to make losses and production cuts may be on the way.

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stainless steel nickel NPI

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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