Futures: SMM Evening Comments (Dec 20)

SHANGHAI, Dec 20 (SMM)－Nonferrous metals mostly moved higher today except for lead. Aluminium led the gains among base metals with over 1% rise.

The ferrous market, however, were weaker. Coke dropped with 2% loss while hot-rolled coil was down nearly 1%. Iron ore and rebar also traded lower. Coking coal rallied in the afternoon with a slight gain at closure.

Aluminium: Aluminium rose overnight on news of potentially lower alumina output due to natural gas shortage. However, SMM believes alumina production is unlikely to be impacted as most producers use coal gas. In addition, alumina inventory remains high. We see insufficient momentum for aluminium price to go up much further.

Copper: Copper has stood above the 40-day moving average but upper resistance remained at 54,000 yuan/mt. It is expected to stay rangebound in the near term. The US existing home sales data in November is likely to give guidance to the market tonight.

Nickel: The increase in nickel price was smaller today, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range later tonight. US existing home sales in November and weekly EIA crude oil inventory data could set the tone during the night trading session.

Zinc: Zinc price rallied today and stabilised at the 40-day and 60-day moving averages. With poor physical demand, it is unlikely to move up much further. It is estimated to trade in a narrow range tonight at around 25,500 yuan/mt.

Tin: Tin price continued to be rangebound as both bulls and bears looked to cut their positions with the upcoming physical delivery.

Lead: Lead price is currently between the 5-day and 60-day moving averages and it may test the upper resistance tonight.

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