LME Declining Zinc Inventory Contributed by Cancelled Warrants

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment: China Zinc Ingot Inventory Declines, SHFE Zinc Center Moves Up] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 26,500 yuan/mt. After the open, SHFE zinc continued to consolidate at highs, reaching a high of 26,680 yuan/mt in early trading and a low of 26,480 yuan/mt during the session, before closing up at 26,590 yuan/mt, up 310 yuan/mt, or 1.18%. Trading volume increased to 74,263 lots.

On Sept 16, a fatal fall took the life of a subcontractor worker during roof work at Plant 2 of Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter in Ulsan, South Korea. The incident occurred on the roof of the condenser room, part of the roasting and sulphuric-acid system at the front end of the zinc flowsheet, while a ventilation fan was being installed. The accident arose from exterior construction work and did not damage the main smelting equipment. However, if the roasting-acid system is taken offline, the zinc roasters cannot sustain normal operation. No production cut, maintenance shutdown or suspension notice has been issued, and investigations are under way. Whether a work-stoppage order will be issued — and how broad its scope would be — and whether the company voluntarily halts the affected system for inspection remain unknown; the output impact is therefore uncertain. As a very rough sensitivity reference based on the smelter's nameplate capacity of roughly 640,000 t/y, a 3-7 day shutdown would imply a volume impact on the order of several thousand tonnes — but this is an order-of-magnitude estimate only, and the actual impact depends on the scope and duration of any inspection-related halt. Coming in a year when several overseas smelters (Nexa's Cajamarquilla, Glencore's Kazzinc and Young Poong's Seokpo) have already been disrupted amid a tight global refined-zinc market, the incident may lend short-term bullish sentiment to zinc, while the actual impact on output requires continued monitoring.

[Rate Hike Lands, Macro Pressure Persists; China Destocking Supports SHFE Zinc's Rebound from Lows] In the daytime session, the SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 26,080 yuan/mt, dipped to 25,970 yuan/mt in early trading, then consolidated and rebounded, reaching a high of 26,335 yuan/mt near the close before settling at 26,280 yuan/mt, up 95 yuan/mt, or 0.36%. Trading volume increased to 64,810 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,860 lots to 124,000 lots......