Indonesia NPI Output: 6,000 Tons in November

[7.14 Morning Meeting Minutes] On the 12th local time, US President Trump said the US carried out “heavy strikes” on Iran the night before. Regarding the navigational status of the Strait of Hormuz, there are disagreements among various parties. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority posted on social media on the 12th, stating that the Strait of Hormuz is currently impassable. Trump, however, said, “As far as the US is concerned, the Strait of Hormuz is still open.” The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract edged down in early trading, closing at 128,030 yuan/mt by the end of the early session, up 0.02%. Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict took another turn. The simultaneous rise of the US dollar and crude oil weighed on metals, but Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it will no longer raise the national nickel ore mining production quota overall. The increase will be very limited, with strict exception approval channels set only for domestic smelters facing severe raw material supply shortages. In the short term, nickel prices may rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract trading in a range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

According to Assofermet's latest monthly report, the new EU safeguard measures have created significant market uncertainty, primarily due to sharp quota reductions, new "Other Countries" quota rules, and late-notice implementation. In stainless steel, flat products recovered modestly on selective demand from food and chemical-pharmaceutical sectors, while tubular and long products posted the sharpest declines; distributors continue to struggle passing higher costs to end-users, keeping margins under pressure, with September seen as a key test of medium-term sector viability. Trading activity is expected to remain weak through July-August due to seasonal shutdowns, with a meaningful demand recovery unlikely before Q4. From October 1, importers will also face new melt-and-pour documentation requirements, adding further operational complexity.

The global nickel and stainless steel markets remain focused on Indonesia's July RKAB quota revision window, with several Indonesian mining companies having submitted applications for increased allocations. The outcome remains uncertain: approval would help ease nickel ore supply constraints, while a slower-than-expected review process could disrupt ferronickel and stainless steel supply chains. High inventory levels continue to suppress market performance, with spot transactions staying sluggish and end-user demand remaining weak. With the quota review outcome still unclear, elevated inventories, and soft demand converging, the nickel and stainless steel markets are likely to maintain a cautious wait-and-see tone in the near term, with the trajectory hinging on Indonesia's quota policy direction and shifts in supply-demand fundamentals.