Deutsche Bank Raises Zinc Price Forecast

Total zinc ingots inventories across seven major markets in China stood at 284,100 mt as of April 15, up 6,100 mt from April 8, down 3,700 mt from April 11.

Shanghai base metals mostly trended lower on Tuesday morning after US dollar rallied significantly. Meanwhile, their counterparts on LME performed similarly.

Shanghai nonferrous metals mostly closed in the positive territory as the market was cheered up by the macro front, as China released its December official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings, which topped market expectation.

SHFE and LME zinc prices once again hit new highs in two months, mainly owing to the continuously rising electricity and natural gas prices which rose by more than 20% amid intensifying energy shortages in the eurozone, according to SMM. Meanwhile, the costs of smelters also climbed due to low zinc concentrate TCs as a result of tight supply.

Market focus this week includes the readings of the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone in November and the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in November; the one-year loan market interest rate as of November 22 in China. On the events front, the Federal Reserve FOMC will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting this Thursday; Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech this Friday.

The production in the upstream mainstream smelters stabilised. Guangxi gradually resumed production from power rationing. The increase in processing fees has stimulated the enthusiasm of smelters to produce, and some companies have reopened primary ore production lines. The output is expected to increase on the month in October.

Shanghai base metals basically trended higher on Tuesday morning amid extended power rationing. Meanwhile, their counterparts on LME mostly fell.

Market focus this week include: the annualised reading of new housing starts in the United States in August, the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone in September, and the initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in September; China's one-year loan market quotation interest rate as of September 22. In terms of events, FOMC will announced the interest rate resolutions this Thursday; the Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference; and the European Central Bank will announces an economic bulletin.

China’s copper prices will maintain an upward movement with the continuous recovery of global economy despite some current retracement.

Without more good news, SHFE Zinc is estimated to move between 24,650-25,150 yuan per tonne.