Indonesia Drafting Ban on Rare Earth Metals Export

The prices of mainstream rare earth products are expected to be strongly supported by the downstream demand in 2022, with prices of mainstream rare earth oxides such as praseodymium oxide, terbium oxide and dysprosium oxide steadily moving upwards, according to SMM. Specifically speaking, China's new energy vehicle production is expected to reach 2.78 million units in 2021 and 14.22 million units by 2030, with a CAGR of 20% during 2021E-2030E. The development of elevators, air conditioners and wind power generation will also sustain its momentum.

Minmetals Rare Earth Company announced on September 23 that it has been notified by China Minmetals Group that a strategic restructuring of the relevant rare earth assets has been under discussion among Aluminum Corporation of China, China Minmetals Group Limited and Ganzhou Municipal People's Government.

Amid the recent strong upward trend of rare earth prices, demand from new energy vehicles (NEVs) and other emerging downstream sectors surge, while tight control over upstream supply side may continue, thus creating the historical pivot for rare earth industry. The supply & demand and national policies are expected to walk in step with each other, opening the door to long-term bullish market. As a result, the classic Davis double play may appear among the performance and valuation of rare earth board.

In recent weeks, the domestic rare earth market as a whole prospered evidenced by overall rising prices of all products. In particular, the price of praseodymium oxide increased significantly among others. In the middle and late June, the market prices of praseodymium rallied, and terbium bottomed out. Later, since mid-July, market prices of light and heavy rare earth rose across the board, and the market is relatively in tight supply resulted from insufficient pre-stockpile or oversold. Hence the short supply of metal intensified in current stage.

The first batch of output is expected in March at the earliest.

China’s NPI production will decline 13% to 510,000 mt in Ni content in 2020

Vessels carrying nickel ore left Pomalaa mining area in Indonesia this morning

Indonesia is expected to export another 12.01 million wmt of nickel ore by the expiration of the remaining quotas

Prices of nickel pig iron (NPI) in the domestic market are likely to rise as supply shrank and as traders stockpiled last week

Indonesian mining company PT Macika Mada Madana has secured nickel ore export quotas of 1 million wmt last week, SMM learned.