WBMS: Global Metals Balance between Supply and Demand

SHANGHAI, Oct. 19 (SMM)－WBMS released data showing metals balances during first eight months the year.

January to August 2017 METALS BALANCES

Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to August 2017

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to August 2017 was a deficit of 1572 kt which follows a deficit of 766 kt recorded for the whole of 2016. Demand for primary aluminium for January to August 2017 was 40.88 million tonnes 2334 kt more than the first eight months of 2016. Production in January to August 2017 rose by 1345 kt compared with 2016. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks rose by 10 kt during August and at the end of the month were 2284 kt which equated to 14 days demand and compares with 2761 kt at the end of 2016. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 1839 kt at the end of August 2017 which was 485 kt below the December 2016 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production rose in January to August 2017 by 3.5 per cent compared with the first eight months of 2016. Chinese output was estimated at 22171 kt and this currently accounts for over 56 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 7.2 per cent higher than 2016. Chinese net exports were 248 kt in January to August and net exports of unwrought aluminium for the whole of 2016 were 255 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China rose from 2489 kt in January to August 2016 to 2627 kt in the first eight months of 2017.

Production in the EU28 increased by 0.2 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 2.4 per cent. EU28 demand was 145 kt higher than the comparable 2016 total. Global demand rose by 6 per cent during January to August compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In August 2017, primary aluminium production was 4800.5 kt and consumption was 5002.6 kt. 

Copper market records deficit in January to August 2017

The copper market recorded a deficit of 32 kt in January to August 2017 which follows a deficit of 102 kt in the whole of 2016. Reported stocks fell during August and closed 49 kt higher than at the end of December 2016. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to August 2017 was 13.28 million tonnes which was 0.9 per cent lower than in the same period in 2016. Global refined production for January to August 2017 was 15.56 million tonnes up 0.7 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 342 kt) and a reduction in Chile (down 178 kt).

Global consumption for January to August 2017 was 15.59 million tonnes compared with 15.66 million tonnes for the same months of 2016. Chinese apparent consumption in January to August 2017 fell by 76 kt to 7663 kt compared to the same months of 2016 and represented just over 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production rose by 8 per cent and demand was 2383 kt, 4 per cent above the January to August 2016 total. 

In August 2017, refined copper production was 1968.2 kt and consumption was 1901.4 kt.

Lead market records deficit in January to August 2017

The lead market was in deficit by 332 kt in January to August 2017 which follows a deficit of 142 kt recorded in the whole of 2016. Total stocks at the end of August were 48 kt lower than at the end of 2016. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. 

World refined production during January to August 2017 from both primary and secondary sources was 7707 kt which was 8.7 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2016. Global demand was 870 kt higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3397 kt of lead in January to August 2017 which was 604 kt above the comparable period in 2016 and represented over 42 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has increased by 237 kt for January to August 2017 compared to the first eight months of 2016.

In August 2017, refined lead production was 937.5 kt and consumption was 956.0 kt. 

Zinc market records deficit in January to August 2017

The zinc market was in deficit by 455 kt during January to August 2017 which compares with a deficit of 202 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 33 kt during August. LME stocks fell by 21 kt in August and ended the month 184 kt lower than at the end of 2016. LME stocks represent just under 33 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand fell by 0.2 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China fell by 2.3 per cent compared with 2016. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 66 kt in August which brought the year to date figure to 314 kt, 20 kt lower than in January to August 2016. 

Global refined production rose by 0.5 per cent and consumption was 3 per cent higher than the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 349 kt, 13.7 per cent above the equivalent total for January to August 2016.

World demand was 272 kt higher than for January to August 2016. Chinese apparent demand was 4341 kt which is just over 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In August 2017 slab zinc production was 1118.8 kt and consumption 1166.8 kt. 

Nickel market records deficit in January to August 2017

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to August 2017 with apparent demand exceeding production by 40.2 kt. In the whole of 2016 the calculated deficit was 70 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of August 2017 were 16.8 kt higher than at the end of the previous year with most of the increases recorded in Asia. Refined production in January to August 2017 totalled 1149.4 kt and demand was 1189.6 kt.

Mine production during January to August was 1251.4 kt, 16 kt above the comparable 2016 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output decreased by 31 kt compared with 2016 and apparent demand was 152 kt lower than in the previous year due to reduced imports of Nickel metal from Russia.

World apparent demand was 101 kt lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In August 2017, nickel smelter/refinery production was 158.5 kt and consumption was 159.1 kt. 

Tin market records deficit in January to August 2017

The tin market recorded a deficit of 9.2 kt during January to August 2017 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose by 1.9 kt during August and ended the period 7.3 kt higher than December 2016. 

Global reported production of refined metal was up by 16.8 kt, compared with January to August 2016 total. Production in Asia was 17.7 kt higher than the January to August 2016 total. Apparent demand in China was 3.4 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to August 2017 was 253.4 kt which was 0.5 per cent above the comparable period of 2016. Japanese consumption was 19.6 kt which was 11 per cent higher than the comparable total for 2016.

In August 2017, refined production was 28.2 kt and consumption was 28.9 kt

Dated 18th October 2017

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