SHFE Nickel to Stay Low (2017-9-28)

[SMM Nickel Flash] June 24 - The SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 2.23, down 0.04 MoM. The upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.59, down 0.08 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor was 1.86, down 0.02 MoM. The NPI market weakened overall today, with extremely sluggish trading. The supply-demand price spread continued to widen. The substitution effect of steel scrap, combined with expectations of steel mill maintenance, doubly weighed on NPI demand.

Market rumors suggest that Indonesia may relax the restrictions on the annual nickel ore mining quota (RKAB) in the second half of this year. This move may alleviate the tight raw material supply situation of local smelting enterprises, but it may also put downward pressure on international nickel prices. According to an unnamed informed source, the government may adjust a significant amount of the total annual nickel ore mining quota in the middle of the year, and some nickel ore enterprises plan to submit applications for quota increases early next month. However, the news is currently highly uncertain. As of now, there have been no clear reports from local Indonesian media, and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia has not issued any official news or statements to confirm the claim regarding a substantial quota revision. The plan to relax the quota still has significant uncertainties, and SMM will continue to closely monitor the actual progress and official developments of this event.