China NPI Producers Hold Back Sales on Difficulties in Sourcing Supplementary Materials

IMIP’s RKEF NPI plants have begun cutting operating loads by 30–40% amid water shortages. Prolonged cuts could reduce cumulative NPI output by over 100 kt, equivalent to more than 11 kt of nickel at an 11% grade. Meanwhile, weak demand is expected to lower China’s October 300-series stainless output by over 100 kt. Elevated NPI inventories could cushion the initial impact, with price support depending on the disruption’s duration and downstream buying.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 23 Sep , 2026

Indonesia's nickel ore market remained stable on September 23, with SMM assessments for Indonesian nickel ore delivered to destination ports unchanged across major grades: Ni 1.2%: $26.5/wmt, unchanged. Ni 1.3%: $28.5/wmt, unchanged. Ni 1.4%: $51.8/wmt, unchanged. Ni 1.5%: $58.5/wmt, unchanged. Ni 1.6%: $63.4/wmt, unchanged. In the market, additional 2026 RKAB approvals are gradually entering the market, helping ease the earlier shortage of nickel ore. However, the total additional quota has yet to be officially announced, and the pace of quota execution remains a key factor for subsequent ore supply and smelter production. Meanwhile, El Niño-driven drought has emerged as a new supply-side concern. IMIP confirmed that water shortages have forced some smelters to reduce NPI production, although operations have not been halted.