Citibank Expects Good Performance for Commodity Market Before 2017’s End

SMM's own port inventory tracking shows China's total chrome ore stockpiles have remained near record levels through the second half of 2026, even after a modest pullback from their 10 July peak. Inventories touched 509.14 (10,000mt) — roughly 5.09 million tonnes — on that date, before easing to approximately 490.15 (10,000mt), or 4.90 million tonnes, by early August, a drawdown of just 3.7%. Set against the trajectory of the year, that decline barely registers: stocks climbed from a trough near 300 (10,000mt) in late February to above 500 (10,000mt) by mid-year, and the current level remains well above anything seen in the first four months of 2026, confirming that the market is still working through a substantial ore overhang at Chinese ports rather than genuinely destocking. Pricing at Qinzhou Port has firmed alongside this marginal pullback rather than because of any real supply tightening. SMM data shows South African chrome concentrate (Cr2O3 40-42%) at 54.5 CNY/mtu and South African chrome lump (Cr2O3 36-38%) at 56.5 CNY/mtu as of 10 July 2026, with concentrate pricing subsequently climbing to 59.61 CNY/mtu by early August — a gain of close to 9% in under a month. That move should be read cautiously against the inventory backdrop: with port stocks still hovering near their 2026 high, the price recovery looks more like a technical bounce or short-term restocking behavior than evidence of a genuine tightening in the underlying supply-demand balance. Bottom line: China's chrome ore port inventories remain near record highs despite the recent dip, and SMM's data suggests the market has not meaningfully worked through this year's substantial stock build. Until inventories fall more decisively from current elevated levels, the recent price firmness at Qinzhou Port is likely to remain vulnerable to renewed downward pressure, particularly if South African arrivals continue at their current pace.