LME Base Metals Cash to 3-Month Backwardation/Contango (2017-9-7)

Freeport’s two copper smelters in Gresik, Indonesia, have resumed production. PT Smelting, with copper cathode capacity of around 342,000 t/y, has returned to normal operations after a roughly two-week shutdown for furnace repairs in August. Meanwhile, the Manyar smelter resumed concentrate feeding in August and is expected to produce copper cathode in September. PTFI expects combined cathode output from the two smelters to approach 400,000 tonnes this year. As Indonesian refined copper production recovers and the COMEX-LME price spread narrows sharply, tightness in the ex-U.S. refined copper market has eased. The LME cash-to-three-month copper spread has consequently fallen from a backwardation of more than US$500/t in mid-August to a contango of around US$86/t by mid-September, signaling a significant easing in immediate spot supply tightness.

According to SMM market research, the PT Smelting copper smelter in Gresik, Indonesia, temporarily suspended production following an equipment issue in August. The repair work took around two weeks, and the smelter has now returned to normal operating levels. Public disclosures showed that PT Smelting halted operations from August 8 for furnace repairs. The facility, 66%-owned by PT Freeport Indonesia and 34%-owned by Mitsubishi Materials, has expanded copper cathode capacity of approximately 342,000 t/y and concentrate processing capacity of around 1.3 Mt/y. During the temporary shutdown, Freeport adjusted its shipment schedule and accelerated the restart of its new Manyar smelter. With PT Smelting now back at normal operating levels and Manyar resuming concentrate feeding in August and cathode production in September, both of Freeport's copper smelting facilities in Gresik have returned to production. However, Manyar remains in a ramp-up phase, with its operating rate largely dependent on the recovery of concentrate supply from the Grasberg Block Cave mine.