Spot Copper Sees Strong Downstream Buying Interest with Bullishness, SMM Reports

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, available spot copper cathode supplies in the Shanghai market remain tight. After some low-priced cargoes were traded in early morning, offers quickly decreased. Suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling further strengthened. As month-end approaches, some downstream consumers and traders still need to replenish cargoes with invoices dated this month, but supply of such cargoes is relatively limited, widening the invoice gap gradually. Purchase sentiment continued to rebound during the day, reflecting that restocking demand still exists, providing strong support for spot premiums. However, with copper prices and premiums both at high levels, downstream acceptance of high-priced cargoes may gradually decline, and the willingness to chase higher prices could be restrained. On balance, due to tight available supplies, month-end invoice demand, and suppliers' firm hold on prices, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2609 contract are expected to remain in premium tomorrow, with the overall center likely to hold up well.

On August 26, COMEX copper futures for September delivery once rose 1.8% to $6.7270/lb (about $14,830/mt), surpassing the previous record of $6.7140/lb set on August 12 and hitting a new all-time high. LME three-month copper futures rose to $14,437/mt, approaching the historical highest price of $14,527.5/mt set in January, with the COMEX-LME price spread at about $500/mt. Market expectations that the US may impose a 15% tariff on copper cathode from January 2027 (rising to 30% from 2028) have been disrupting global copper trade flows. Data showed that the US imported 889,800 mt of copper cathode in H1 2026, up 2.1% YoY, while 2025 was the year with the highest imports on record at 1.6544 million mt for the full year. As of August 24, COMEX copper inventories had reached a record 676,104 mt. If US imports maintain their current growth rate, copper markets outside the US will actually face a supply deficit.