SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Sept. 4, 2017)

Indonesia's nickel industry is facing depletion of high-grade laterite resources continues to reduce average ore quality. It is expected that the country's average nickel ore grade will decline by a further 4–5% in 2026. For example, although transactions may be priced as 1.50% Ni ore, the actual delivered ore grade may average only around 1.43–1.44% Ni. Although the decline appears modest, lower ore grades require miners to process significantly more material to produce the same amount of contained nickel, increasing stripping ratios, raising mining costs, and tightening the supply of premium-grade ore for both RKEF and HPAL smelters. Despite the tightening ore supply outlook, benchmark nickel prices have softened to around US$17,000/mt. The market remains caught between increasingly constrained raw material fundamentals in Indonesia and abundant global refined nickel inventories. While declining ore grades are expected to provide gradual cost support for domestic ore prices over the medium term, elevated refined nickel inventories continue to cap benchmark nickel prices, limiting the scope for a sustained price recovery.

Ardea Resources (ASX: ARL) presented its Kalgoorlie Nickel Project (KNP) at the Diggers & Dealers forum on August 3, citing a resource of 854 Mt at 0.71% Ni and 0.045% Co, or 6.1 Mt contained nickel and 386 kt contained cobalt, which it calls Australia's largest nickel-cobalt resource. The Goongarrie Hub definitive feasibility study is fully funded by Japanese partners Sumitomo Metal Mining and Mitsubishi Corp on an A$98.5m budget; Ardea holds 65% of the Goongarrie JV and the Japanese consortium 35%. Export Finance Australia and US EXIM have issued letters covering potential support of about A$1bn.

In its official H1 2026 release, PT Trimegah Bangun Persada (Harita Nickel, IDX: NCKL) said its Rp17.1tn revenue was supported by operational discipline and capacity optimization amid a still-challenging global nickel market. CFO Suparsin Darmo Liwan said nickel ore sales volumes rose YoY, helped by the new PT Gane Tambang Sentosa (GTS) mine running since Q3 2025 and added lines at the KPS pyrometallurgy plant. Ferronickel sales rose notably on higher KPS RKEF output, while HPAL (MHP) sales were stable, shaped by delivery scheduling. Harita is also building a 50 MW HPAL waste-heat plant (Q4 2026) and a 40 MW solar plant (99% built).