SHFE Base Metals Warrants (2017-8-28)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the current pattern of weak supply and demand in the Shanghai spot market persists. On the supply side, available cargoes in the market remain tight, with some suppliers holding limited inventories and showing little willingness to sell at low prices, providing some support for spot premiums. On the demand side, although SHFE copper prices pulled back notably during the day, procurement enthusiasm among downstream processing enterprises has yet to show significant improvement, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. Some buyers are concentrating their bids around premiums of 1,100 yuan/mt, creating a certain divergence from supplier quotes, and actual transactions remain primarily driven by rigid demand. Meanwhile, the intraday backwardation spread between futures contracts fluctuated significantly, widening to above 1,000 yuan/mt at one point. The elevated spread combined with high spot premiums continued to push up procurement costs for downstream buyers, further suppressing market transactions. Overall, tight circulating supply still underpins spot premiums, but weak demand and the high backwardation structure are limiting further upside in premiums. Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to stay high tomorrow.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at premiums of 850–960 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 905 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 109,505 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.