Yunnan Aluminum Releases Aluminum and Relevant Product Output Goals for H2 2017

Last night, the alumina futures 2605 contract showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise. In the early night session, it attempted a rebound, reaching a high of 2,844 yuan/mt, but subsequently, momentum weakened, and it closed at 2,811 yuan/mt, with gains narrowing. In terms of volume structure, trading volume surged significantly by 47,000 lots to 160,000 lots, while open interest decreased against the trend by 11,000 lots to 286,000 lots, indicating limited market willingness to chase highs and clear signs of funds exiting at elevated levels. The technical setup remains constrained by a bearish alignment, with the short-term moving average system—MA5 (2,820.8) and MA10 (2,820.3)—converging and exerting direct resistance on the futures, while the MA30 (2,829.57) further constitutes a medium-term resistance level. Overall, the futures exhibit weak adjustment characteristics, marked by increased volume without corresponding price gains and a pullback accompanied by reduced open interest.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Market Enters Holiday Mode with Prices Mainly Stable, Post-Holiday Recovery Awaited] Post-holiday price trends will return to the interplay between supply-demand and cost factors. If enterprises maintain a normal pace of production resumptions while downstream order recovery falls short of expectations, the price center risks declining under pressure. If phased restocking occurs after the holiday, coupled with primary aluminum prices holding up well, ADC12 prices are expected to see a corrective rebound. Overall, before end-use demand shows substantial improvement, prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend in the initial post-holiday period, still moving within the pre-holiday range, with direction depending on the strength of demand recovery and the performance of primary aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: AI Concerns Triggered a Broad Decline in Risk Assets, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and in the Doldrums] Overall, the bullish sentiment in the nonferrous metals market cooled down, coupled with high inventory pressure on the fundamentals, aluminum prices were in the doldrums this week. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic market was closed, while the LME market continued trading. Be cautious of fluctuations in the macro market and the LME market during the holiday, which may cause volatility in aluminum prices after the holiday.