Citi and Societe Generale Express Divergent Views over Base Metals Price Outlook

Published: Aug 23, 2017 10:45

Save

Citi raised forecasts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc and iron ore prices, while Societe Generale is relatively pessimistic.

SHANGHAI, Aug. 23 (SMM) –Citi raised forecasts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc and iron ore prices, while Societe Generale is relatively pessimistic.

Barclays Expects Copper Prices to Severely Soften in Late 2017

Citi raised forecasts for nickel and zinc prices, citing supply side reform in China. Citi also revised up forecasts for copper, aluminum and iron ore prices in Q4 2017 and 2018. The bank now sees copper prices at $6,100/tonne in Q4 2017, up from its previous forecast of $5,800/tonne, and sees iron ore prices at $65/tonne in Q4 2017, up from previous forecast of $48/tonne.

Industry Insiders Bullish over Base Metals in H2 2017

There is no news in market fundamentals that could push prices up further, said Robin Bhar, Head of Metals Research at Societe Generale. Despite positive technical side for copper, zinc and aluminum, prices should correct down to levels seen before their surge, Robin Bhar added. Robin Bhar sees copper prices at $6,500/tonne and zinc prices slightly below $3,000/tonne.

The article is edited by SMM and is provided for information purpose only. SMM assumes no liability and does not warrant the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information contained or quoted in the article, either express or implied. SMM further disclaims any liability for losses in connection with the information contained or quoted in the article.

For news cooperation, please contact us by email: sallyzhang@smm.cn or service.en@smm.cn.

Citi Societe Generale base metals prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

22 mins ago

China's Recycled Copper Raw Material Imports Edge Up Modestly in 2025 as Source Structure Undergoes Significant Shifts

According to data, China's total imports of recycled copper raw materials reached 2.34 million physical tons in 2025, up 3.96% year-on-year from 2.25 million physical tons in 2024. However, the source structure shifted markedly. Among the top five supplier countries, imports from the United States plunged 67.88% year-on-year amid ongoing China-US trade tensions, while imports from Malaysia fell 32.61% due to tightening scrap import policies. Offsetting these declines, imports from Thailand surged 88.58%, and those from Japan and South Korea rose 32.96% and 32.95% respectively, driving a continued increase in Asia's overall share of supply.

22 mins ago

2 hours ago

Copper Discount Slowly Recovers, But Upward Momentum Weak Amid Ample Supply

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the discount for spot copper is expected to continue its slow recovery, though the room for improvement remains limited.Intraday trends showed spot premiums stabilizing, with traders holding firm on pricing and only non-registered copper discounts narrowing slightly. Downstream acceptance is gradually improving.The narrowing month spread may reduce warrant delivery interest. Supply remains ample due to sustained arrivals of domestic and imported copper, alongside high social inventories. Downstream operations are recovering, but demand growth is too slow to significantly boost premiums.In short, the discount is slowly correcting, but upward momentum is weak.

2 hours ago

Supply-demand Rebalancing Continues to Advance SHFE Copper Spot Discounts Gradually Stabilize [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

[Shanghai Spot Copper] For tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a modest recovery trend, but the room for improvement is limited. During the second trading session of the day, spot premiums and discounts for SHFE copper gradually stabilized, with suppliers making no significant price adjustments. Only non-registered copper discount quotes dropped slightly, indicating an increased willingness among suppliers to hold prices firm. Meanwhile, downstream acceptance of current prices has been gradually improving, and buying and selling sentiment remains stable. In terms of market structure, the price spread between futures contracts for the next month narrowed slightly, suggesting that suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses may have decreased. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously locked-price imported sources continue to arrive, coupled with high social inventory, resulting in an overall ample supply of circulating goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are steadily resuming production, and buying and selling sentiment has rebounded MoM, but the overall pace of recovery remains slow, making it difficult to provide strong support for premiums and discounts. Overall, while spot premiums and discounts are slowly recovering, there are still upward resistance.

2 hours ago