Antofagasta Sees Big Gains in Profit and Copper Output in H1 2017

Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure; although lower prices have spurred end-user orders and supported spot premiums, a shift to profitable import arbitrage is prompting aggressive ratio locking and will likely bring substantial imported copper ahead of the holiday, while a slightly narrower nearby contango is encouraging suppliers to increase spot sales, adding to short-term supply pressure—though further price declines could stimulate sustained restocking demand and gradually stabilize spot discounts.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Copper prices retreated today, while orders increased compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the current price level has become more attractive to end-user procurement, which may provide some support to spot premiums/discounts. In terms of market structure, SHFE copper imports turned from loss to profit, prompting importers to actively lock in the SHFE/LME price ratio. As a result, a significant amount of imported copper is expected to enter the domestic market ahead of the holiday. Meanwhile, the Contango spread between nearby contracts narrowed slightly, encouraging suppliers to increase spot sales, adding to short-term spot supply pressure. If copper prices fall further to lower levels, more sustained restocking demand may be triggered, at which point spot discounts could gradually stabilize.

[SMM Market Movement] On the afternoon of February 2, multiple non-ferrous metal varieties on the SHFE hit limit-down, with copper and aluminum falling 9%, and tin and nickel falling 11%.