SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Aug. 21, 2017)

A Panamanian ministerial commission has recommended opening formal negotiations with First Quantum Minerals over a potential restart of Cobre Panamá. Under the proposal, the mine could resume operations without expanding its footprint, with operating revenue funding rehabilitation, long-term monitoring and an eventual orderly closure at no cost to the state. Any agreement would require all pending international arbitration claims to be terminated and could not be extended. The report did not specify the scale or duration of a restart. Cobre Panamá previously accounted for around 1% of global copper production. Until an agreement and timetable are confirmed, the near-term impact on copper concentrate supply remains limited.

Sindicato N°2 de Supervisores y Staff at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile rejected the company's final wage offer, with 95% voting to authorise strike action. The union of about 1,020 supervisors objected to limited pay improvements, multi-tasking requirements and a proposed 14x14 shift rotation. Chilean law now mandates at least five days of government mediation, extendable by five more, before any legal walkout. The mine produced 1.26 million tonnes in fiscal 2026, down 3% year on year, with fiscal 2027 guidance of 1.0-1.1 million tonnes. Production is currently unaffected, but the vote compounds supply risk after a fatal accident halted operations in late September.

India has not yet decided whether to remove the pre-shipment inspection requirement for imported metal scrap, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade said on September 30. The authority is reviewing a proposal from the Material Recycling Association of India and remains open to further easing compliance requirements. MRAI has argued that a shortage of India-authorized inspection agencies in several exporting countries is creating certification and logistical constraints for scrap shipments. Reuters India imports around 13 million tonnes of recyclable metal scrap annually from more than 160 countries, with roughly 2,500 containers arriving each day. MRAI has proposed recognizing more overseas inspection agencies and expanding the list of low-risk origins exempt from pre-shipment inspections. DGFT said pre-shipment certification and inspections at Indian ports currently serve different purposes and cannot simply replace each other. Any eventual relaxation could reduce compliance barriers for imported scrap, including copper scrap, and broaden sourcing flexibility for Indian buyers, although no policy change has yet been approved.