SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Aug. 21, 2017)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Copper prices retreated today, while orders increased compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the current price level has become more attractive to end-user procurement, which may provide some support to spot premiums/discounts. In terms of market structure, SHFE copper imports turned from loss to profit, prompting importers to actively lock in the SHFE/LME price ratio. As a result, a significant amount of imported copper is expected to enter the domestic market ahead of the holiday. Meanwhile, the Contango spread between nearby contracts narrowed slightly, encouraging suppliers to increase spot sales, adding to short-term spot supply pressure. If copper prices fall further to lower levels, more sustained restocking demand may be triggered, at which point spot discounts could gradually stabilize.

[SMM Market Movement] On the afternoon of February 2, multiple non-ferrous metal varieties on the SHFE hit limit-down, with copper and aluminum falling 9%, and tin and nickel falling 11%.