SHFE 1801 Nickel Finishes Higher (2017-8-16)

Vietnamese stainless steel producers Yongjin Metal Technology and Tan Viet presented their defense at Taiwan (PoC)'s anti-dumping trade hearing on September 14. Legal representatives argued that Vietnamese cold-rolled stainless steel imports account for only 8% of Taiwan (PoC)'s market demand, insufficient to constitute material injury. They further contended that Taiwan (PoC)'s local production, sales volumes, capacity utilization, and employee counts have all increased since 2023 while inventories declined, and that falling import prices reflect broader East Asian market trends rather than intentional underpricing. Defense counsel also asserted that rising Vietnamese shipments replaced third-country suppliers rather than displacing local manufacturers, and that Taiwan (PoC)'s domestic industry profit declines preceded the expansion of Vietnamese import volumes. Domestic petitioners Yusco and Tang Eng maintained that low-priced imports have forced local price cuts and eroded earnings. Investigators must now determine whether a causal link exists between Vietnamese shipments and injury to Taiwan (PoC)'s domestic market.

[9.17 Morning Meeting Notes] The US Fed decision lands tonight, with the probability of a rate hike rising to 94.5%. The FOMC meeting enters its second day (announcement at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 17th), and CME FedWatch shows a 94.5% probability of a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% (just 33.1% a month ago). The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.041% intraday, the highest since July 2007; the 20-year yield reached 5.441%, a new high since issuance resumed. A JPMorgan survey shows US Treasury investors' short positions surged by 10 percentage points in a single week to 19%, the largest increase since records began in 2019. Market focus is on the dot plot and Waller's press conference: whether this is a one-off adjustment or the start of a tightening cycle. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2610 contract fell sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 122,410 yuan/mt, down 1.35%, with an intraday low of 120,270 yuan/mt. The US Fed decision lands tonight, and the hike itself is fully priced in; the real risk is that if the dot plot signals sustained tightening, it will trigger a fresh round of selling, while otherwise there is room for repair. After the decision, if it turns out to be a "shoe dropping" scenario, there may be a technical rebound, but the pattern of high inventory and weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the upside. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 121,000-126,000 yuan/mt.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 16 Sep , 2026