Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-8-16)

SHANGHAI, Aug. 16 (SMM) –Market will eye US crude oil stocks, UK ILO jobless rate in Q2, euro zone’s seasonally adjusted Q2 GDP, and US housing starts in July today. 

Jobless rate in the UK fell to the lowest since 1975 at 4.5% during Mar.-May, and may remain unchanged at 4.5% in Q2. High inflation and stagnant wages brought a lot of pressure to UK families. Even if jobless rate is low, the boost to pound will be limited, unless wages improve. 

The annual rate of euro zone’s seasonally adjusted GDP may hold stable at 2.1% in Q2. Positive economic data will pave way for the ECB to tighten monetary policy and boost the euro. 

US housing starts fell for 3 months in a row since Feb. and rebounded more than expected in June. Annualized US housing starts should continue growing in July, but only slightly due to mild growth of apartment rents in some US cities and small growth of idled apartments. 

API US crude oil stocks fell 9.2 million barrels last week, but gasoline stocks rose unexpectedly. US oil futures contract for Sep. delivery shot up after the data, but fell back later. Whether oil prices will rebound will depend on EIA US crude oil stocks to be released tonight. According to one blog, crude oil stocks saw the biggest fall since Sep. 2016, while WTI oil prices rose only slightly and did not break through USD 48/bbl, possibly due to unexpected rise in gasoline stocks.     
See SMM price forecast, please click: SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Aug. 16, 2017)