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Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-8-3)
Aug 3,2017 09:19CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
Eyes should be on China’s July Caixin service PMI, eurozone’s June retail sales, US’s initial jobless claim in the week ending July 28 and June durable goods orders, and BOE's interest rate decision.

SHANGHAI, Aug. 3 (SMM) – On Thursday, eyes should be on China’s Caixin service PMI in July, eurozone’s retail sales in June, US’s initial jobless claim in the week ending July 28 and durable goods orders in June and the Bank of England(BOE)’s interest rate decision. US dollar index remained weak on Wednesday’s night trading and rallied slightly at the tail of trading. US dollar index will keep falling before the release of nonfarm payroll on Friday. But, this shored up base metals, and there is a possibility for copper and tin to surge in a short term, though they underperformed on Wednesday’s night trading.

China’s Caixin service PMI dropped in June. Although service PMI remains in upward track, its growth is likely to slow down. Caixin manufacturing and service PMIs diverged from the beginning of 2017.

SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Aug. 3, 2017)

Eurozone’s retail sales are expected to drop in June from May’s level, which reflects consumption expenditures in the country. Recent economic data shows prudent economic recovery in eurzone, but gloomy inflation and salary growth will restrict retail sales.

US’s ignition jobless claim will fall in the week ending July 28, but as labor market will remain in tight pace, this will make small impact to market.

BOE is expected to hold interest rate unchanged, and market players eye on vote, policy announcement and Carney’s speech, which will make big effect on euro. BOE officials are divergent on rate decision, with most officials supporting to tighten monetary policy. However, lower-than-expected inflation data eased the dispute, lowering market expectation on tightening monetary policy.
Fresh reading of US’s durable goods orders surged in June, hitting the highest from July 2014. Equipment outlay in Q2 will shore up economic growth, and investment banks also raise economic forecast on US. However, final reading of durable goods orders will drop in June, weighing down US dollar market.

Macroeconomic Indicators
base metals

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