Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-7-28)

[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, after SHFE copper completes the contract rollover, the spot market quotation benchmark will switch to the 2611 contract. Intraday futures staged a pullback, prompting some downstream copper processing enterprises to release orders and procurement demand. Combined with the relatively tight availability of circulating supply in the market, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, jointly driving spot premiums sharply higher. On the supply side, the delivery volume for the SHFE copper 2610 contract was 4,895 lots. After delivery is completed, close attention should be paid to the pace of warrant cancellations and the return of supply to the spot market. If delivered supply is released in a concentrated manner, the tightness of available supply in the Shanghai market may ease somewhat, and current high premiums will face some pullback pressure. However, if warrant outflows remain slow, the short-term tight supply pattern will continue to support premiums. On the demand side, attention should be paid to whether downstream new orders can sustain volume growth amid high copper prices. Overall, Shanghai spot premiums are expected to continue to consolidate at highs tomorrow, but the room for further sharp upside may be relatively limited.