Zinc Inventories Return to Declines in China Major Markets, SMM Reports

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Headwinds Largely Released, LME Zinc Rebounds from Lows]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,799/mt. After the open, LME zinc rose steadily, dipping to $3,777/mt early in the session and touching a high of $3,903.5/mt near the close, ultimately settling up at $3,881.5/mt, up $71/mt, or 1.86%. Trading volume increased to 14,030 lots, while open interest fell by 5,079 lots to 262,000 lots...

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment: China Zinc Ingot Inventory Declines, SHFE Zinc Center Moves Up] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 26,500 yuan/mt. After the open, SHFE zinc continued to consolidate at highs, reaching a high of 26,680 yuan/mt in early trading and a low of 26,480 yuan/mt during the session, before closing up at 26,590 yuan/mt, up 310 yuan/mt, or 1.18%. Trading volume increased to 74,263 lots.

On Sept 16, a fatal fall took the life of a subcontractor worker during roof work at Plant 2 of Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter in Ulsan, South Korea. The incident occurred on the roof of the condenser room, part of the roasting and sulphuric-acid system at the front end of the zinc flowsheet, while a ventilation fan was being installed. The accident arose from exterior construction work and did not damage the main smelting equipment. However, if the roasting-acid system is taken offline, the zinc roasters cannot sustain normal operation. No production cut, maintenance shutdown or suspension notice has been issued, and investigations are under way. Whether a work-stoppage order will be issued — and how broad its scope would be — and whether the company voluntarily halts the affected system for inspection remain unknown; the output impact is therefore uncertain. As a very rough sensitivity reference based on the smelter's nameplate capacity of roughly 640,000 t/y, a 3-7 day shutdown would imply a volume impact on the order of several thousand tonnes — but this is an order-of-magnitude estimate only, and the actual impact depends on the scope and duration of any inspection-related halt. Coming in a year when several overseas smelters (Nexa's Cajamarquilla, Glencore's Kazzinc and Young Poong's Seokpo) have already been disrupted amid a tight global refined-zinc market, the incident may lend short-term bullish sentiment to zinc, while the actual impact on output requires continued monitoring.