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Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-7-14)
Jul 14,2017 09:28CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
Attention should be on eurozone’s balance sheet in May, US’s annual CPI in June, monthly retail sales and industrial production.

SHANGHAI, Jul. 14 (SMM) – On Friday, attention should be on eurozone’s balance sheet in May, US’s annual CPI in June, monthly retail sales and industrial production. US dollar index refreshed new high on Thursday’s night trading, down as low as 95.45, but later rallied slightly. US dollar index will not register big decline and fluctuate at current level. Base metals both on SHFE and LME market dropped across the broad except aluminum which stayed firm. Those metals will keep diverging on Friday.

Sharp decline of export was the main factor behind falling balance sheet in eurozone after seasonal adjustment in April. Eurozone’s monthly and annual industrial production after seasonal adjustment both registered a month-on-month growth in May.

SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jul. 14, 2017)

US’s annual CPI will drop to 1.7 from 1.9 in June before seasonal adjustment, a 3-month decline from February 2017. Weak salary growth and consumption are stumbling block on US’s rate hike. This, combined with dovish comment from Federal Reserve official, raised market anticipation over lower annual CPI in June.

Early this year, US’s consumption almost stagnated and inventory investment at enterprises also slowed down, refraining US’s economic growth. US’s monthly retail sales decrease hit the year’s largest in May and industrial production rate bogged down. However, market participants should not be too pessimistic over US’s economy based on Fed Chairwoman Yellen’s speech recently, as positive labor market and low unemployment rate will shore up salary growth and consumption. US’s monthly retail sales and industrial production will improve in June, indicating that US’s economy will regain upward strength.  

US’s Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to drop marginally in July from June’s level, which tends to improve from a big decline last month. As such, US’s economic growth will rally.

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