LME Aluminum to Fluctuate at Highs (2017-7-7)

The Aluminum Federation (ALFED) and the Cast Metals Federation (CMF) have jointly urged the UK government to strengthen industrial competitiveness by lowering electricity costs for manufacturers. They warned that high energy prices have led to job cuts, hiring freezes, delayed investments, reduced operating hours and idled production capacity across the aluminum and cast metals sectors. The two organizations said temporary support under the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) is insufficient and called for aluminum casting and other energy-intensive non-ferrous sectors to be included. They also urged the government to establish a long-term competitive industrial electricity pricing framework to support investment and strengthen key manufacturing supply chains.

Analysts remain optimistic on India's leading aluminum producers Hindalco Industries and Vedanta Aluminum, expecting their shares to rise around 20% over the next 9-12 months. Vedanta is projected to benefit from lower production costs, higher output and stronger cash flow, while Hindalco is expected to gain from Novelis' earnings recovery and upstream capacity expansions scheduled for 2028-2029. Although LME aluminum prices have corrected about 17% from recent highs, analysts believe tightening market fundamentals will continue to support prices. Industry estimates suggest the global aluminum deficit for 2026 has widened from 0.3 million tones to 1.5 million tones, providing positive support for aluminum producers.

One year after the US raised Section 232 aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50%, Canada remains the country's largest primary aluminum supplier. Canada exported about 2.9 million tones of aluminum in 2025, with approximately 2.3 million tones shipped to the US. While the higher tariffs lifted the US Midwest aluminum premium and encouraged Canadian producers to diversify exports toward Europe, they have not significantly reduced US dependence on Canadian aluminum. Industry estimates indicate that even restarting all idled US smelters would still leave a supply gap of around 3.6 million tones. Market participants expect North America's aluminum supply chain to become more diversified rather than fundamentally separated.