Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-6-29)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 29 (SMM) – The number of US initial jobless claims last week, annualized Q1 GDP and PCE goods price index and eurozone June industrial and economic sentiment index and CCI will be released today. Base metals mostly closed with gains overnight. The wenhua CCI also extended gains, presaging weak markets. Selling pressure is still warned for some products.

Revised annualized Q1 GDP for the US rose 1.2%, the lowest from Q1 2016. The data are lower than 2.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, although are higher than 0.9% expected and flash 0.7%. The final data are expected to remain at current level. If the final data topped market expectations, the US dollar will find some support, considering New York Fed NOWCAST hiked forecast for US Q2 growth from 1.86% to 1.88%.

Eurozone June economic sentiment index is expected to rise. But continuously falling oil prices will drag down inflation in the eurozone, which will weigh down flash CPI for Germany in June.

US annualized core CPI before seasonal adjustment continued falling, and annualized CPI before seasonal adjustment has been falling since March. So, US core PCE goods price index in Q1 may also fall, and may weigh down the US dollar.