Another Wave of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact” in China Aluminum Market? SMM Reports

Published: Jun 20, 2017 15:12

Save

SHFE 1708 aluminum, the most active contract, skyrocketed nearly 300 yuan/tonne yesterday and gained another almost 150 yuan/tonne today.

SHANGHAI, Jun. 20 (SMM) – SHFE 1708 aluminum, the most active contract, skyrocketed nearly 300 yuan/tonne yesterday and gained another almost 150 yuan/tonne today. What fueled the surge? Will gains prove sustainable?

Yesterday’s jump followed the release of Issuing Notice for Inspections on Crackdowns on Illegal Aluminum Projects by Xinjiang Development & Reform Commission.

Don’t Get Tricked by Falling Aluminum Stocks in China, SMM Says

Today’s gains were driven by rumors that Shandong Weiqiao Group began cutting aluminum production, with 250,000 tonnes to be cut within 10 days.

However, SMM does not expect aluminum prices to carry on upward momentum for much longer.

First Ship Goes to Lubei Group After Indonesia Lifts Bauxite Export Ban

The document released by Xinjiang Development & Reform Commission will redefine illegal capacity, which will dampen market sentiment. Moreover, the price rise occurred just at a time when prices need technical rally following continuous declines. Besides, the production cuts in the rumor are too small to have any big impact on market supply and prices, SMM explained.

For news cooperation, please contact us by email: sallyzhang@smm.cn or service.en@smm.cn.

aluminum prices SHFE aluminum prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

21 hours ago

US-Iran Joint Military Escalation May Pose Multiple Shocks to Global Primary Aluminum Supply Chain [SMM Analysis]

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict has become the major geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing millions of tonnes of supply disruptions and raising smelting costs. Coupled with risk aversion, aluminum price volatility may intensify.

21 hours ago

US-Iran Joint Military Escalation May Pose Multiple Shocks to Global Primary Aluminum Supply Chain [SMM Analysis]

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict became the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at a scale of millions of mt, while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk-averse sentiment, the volatility of aluminum prices may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of conflicts, strait blockades, and raw material supply interruptions, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macroeconomic disturbances, and to prudently address the operational and investment risks brought about by fluctuations in the supply chain.

21 hours ago

22 hours ago

2026 Overview of Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Enterprises Resuming Work After Chinese New Year [SMM Analysis]

[SMM Analysis: An Overview of the Resumption of Work for Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Enterprises After the 2026 Chinese New Year] Looking ahead, as the industry moves past the holiday impact following the Lantern Festival, coupled with the approaching peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" and the "rush to export" window brought about by adjustments in battery export tax rebate policies, the operating rate of the industry is expected to steadily rebound in late March.

22 hours ago