LME Copper to Stay Range-Bound (2017-6-16)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 70,200 mt, up 3,700 mt WoW; Jiangsu social inventory at 22,000 mt, up 2,200 mt WoW. Meanwhile, as delivery approaches, some suppliers opted to register deliverable cargoes as warrants for delivery, with SHFE registered warrants increasing by over 10,000 mt. After delivery, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. Demand side, after SHFE copper prices pulled back in the night session, downstream procurement improved slightly from earlier, but overall volume remained subdued, with the market still dominated by rigid demand transactions. During the day, suppliers continuously lowered quotes for the 2611 contract to facilitate deals, but low-priced cargoes traded quickly, leaving limited availability of low-priced supply in the market, which provided some support to premiums. With the 2610 contract completing delivery, spot quotes will switch to the 2611 contract as the benchmark starting tomorrow. Shanghai spot premiums are expected to remain at a relatively high level, likely consolidating around the current transaction center for the 2611 contract in the near term. Going forward, attention should be paid to the release of delivered cargoes, arrivals of imported copper, and the actual restocking intensity of downstream buyers after the pullback in copper prices.