SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jun. 15, 2017)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, as some imported cargoes gradually arrive at ports, the available supply in the Shanghai market will be somewhat replenished compared with the earlier period, exerting certain pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, although SHFE copper prices pulled back during last night's night session, according to SMM, actual procurement volumes from end-users remain relatively limited, with downstream players overall maintaining a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Purchases are still mainly need-based, and acceptance of the current high-premium cargoes is not high. Meanwhile, as market pricing gradually shifts to the 2610 contract, spot premiums against the October contract remain at a relatively high level. Although some suppliers are willing to lower their quotes, their willingness to sell at low prices is also limited. Overall, under the combined effect of increased imported arrivals and weak end-use demand, the center of spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2610 contract is expected to edge lower tomorrow. However, considering that available circulating cargoes have not yet become notably ample and suppliers still intend to hold prices firm, spot premiums are expected to remain at a relatively high level.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at a discount of 150-50 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 100 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 107,447 yuan/mt, down 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.