Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-6-14)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 14 (SMM) –Market will eye China urban fixed asset investment for January-May, retail sales and industrial value-added, as well as US May CPI and retail sales, and US crude oil stocks on Wednesday. 

China’s retail sales, urban fixed asset investment and value-added at above-scale industrial enterprises are expected to fall in May. This is because although China’s official manufacturing PMI was stable in May, Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI fell below 50 in May, with sub-index pointing to weakening demand. Moreover, car sales fell and power generation growth slowed down. 

Monthly rate of US retail sales returned to growth in April after falling for three months in a row. It is expected that monthly rate of US retail sales will fall further in May as disappointing US May non-farm payrolls strengthened pessimism over US economy. US un-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate may extend declines in May, which will hit the US dollar. 

Former President of Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank said it will be a mistake if the US Fed decides to raise interest rate during its policy meeting on Wednesday.   

UK inflation data released last night were positive. Three-month ILO jobless rate in the UK has fallen to the lowest in 42 years. Wage growth still failed to keep up with inflation growth, though. If jobless rate continues falling, the pound will get further boost. 

It was reported that talks failed between conservative party led by UK Prime Minister and Northern Ireland democratic party, which will worsen political risks in the UK. 

US API crude oil stocks rose more than expected last week, and gasoline stocks also increased. This caused US crude oil futures for July delivery to fall below USD 46/bbl.    

See SMM price forecast, please click: SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jun. 14, 2017)