Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-6-8)

U.S. merchandise imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo reached approximately US$2.123 billion in January–July 2026, up nearly 66% from about US$1.281 billion in the same period of 2025, according to U.S. trade data reported on September 4. The seven-month total has already surpassed the US$1.928 billion imported from the DRC during the whole of 2025 and is more than six times the US$323.2 million recorded in 2024. Official U.S. Census Bureau data show imports had already reached US$1.411 billion by the end of June. Copper has been a major driver of the increase. During H1 2026, approximately US$1.04 billion of the US$1.411 billion in U.S. imports from the DRC was classified as copper and articles thereof, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total. Imports from the DRC then accelerated to US$712.7 million in July alone, compared with US$264.4 million in July 2025. Separately, U.S. imports of refined copper and copper alloys reached a record 225,094 mt in July, up 78% month on month, with Chile and the DRC identified among the two largest supplying countries. The shift also coincides with a more active marketing strategy by DRC state miner Gécamines. In January, Gécamines exercised its right to purchase 100,000 tonnes of Tenke Fungurume’s 2026 copper production, with the volume designated for the U.S. market and Mercuria providing financial, logistical and technical support. Gécamines said the transaction was intended to diversify buyers and strengthen its role in marketing copper from its mining partnerships. The rapid increase in U.S.-bound DRC trade indicates a meaningful diversification of Congolese copper flows toward the American market. If sustained, this could increase competition for DRC cathode and influence regional export routes and physical premiums. However, the US$2.123 billion headline represents total DRC merchandise exports to the U.S., not copper alone, while unusually high U.S. copper imports have also been influenced by tariff-related inventory positioning. The latest figures therefore point more clearly to a changing trade-flow pattern than to an equivalent increase in underlying U.S. copper consumption.

Analysis: In August 2026, the copper price center shifted significantly higher, and the price spread between primary metal and scrap widened accordingly. Under the traditional transmission logic, a widening primary-scrap price spread would drive copper scrap to flow intensively into the smelting sector, thereby boosting supply of secondary blister copper and anode plates...