SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jun. 5, 2017)

Australian mining company BHP has outlined a global pipeline of copper projects that could expand its production capacity by 1.8–2 million tonnes over the next decade, in response to rising global demand. BHP also projects that global copper demand will increase from approximately 34 million tonnes per year in 2026 to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.