Looming Production Restarts to Pressure Alumina Prices, SMM Reports

[Macro and Fundamentals Send Mixed Signals; Domestic Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] On the macro front, US consumer confidence edged down, confirming growing anxiety among American consumers over high living costs. Although the labour market remained generally stable with few signs of large-scale layoffs, the recent surge in fuel prices posed particular challenges for low-income households, and the bearish sentiment from external markets indirectly weighed on aluminum prices. On the fundamentals side, supply shortfalls and low inventory outside China continued to provide floor support, but elevated domestic inventory levels remained the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak trading activity in the spot market further limited upside room for aluminum prices. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to continue moving sideways in a pattern where LME outperforms SHFE.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Contact Energy has signed a non-binding agreement with Rio Tinto to supply power for the potential restart of the idle Line 4 potline at the New Zealand Aluminium Smelter in Tiwai Point. The restart would require around 50 MW of additional electricity and could support higher aluminum production and exports, while also underpinning development of Contact’s Southland Wind Farm.

Market reports indicate that China is further regulating the operation of primary aluminum capacity, leading to a reduction in excess production in parts of Guangxi. Market Performance: In the afternoon session, the SHFE aluminum contract closed up 0.53% at 24,570 yuan/ton, having earlier touched a high of 24,710 yuan/ton. Among listed companies, Chalco (China Aluminum) hit the daily price limit with a 10.01% gain, Nanshan Aluminum rose 8.81%, Yunnan Aluminum Co. gained 7.39%, and Hongqiao Holdings climbed 8.14%.