Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-5-25)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the intraday SHFE copper intermonth backwardation spread remains at a relatively high level of 570-600 yuan/mt. Coupled with persistently tight availability of cargoes in the Shanghai market, this provides strong support to spot premiums. According to SMM's market communication, mainstream quotations for standard-quality copper with next-month invoices are largely maintained at premiums of 550 yuan/mt or above, with suppliers showing limited willingness to sell at low prices and still-strong sentiment to hold prices firm. However, as spot premiums have climbed to high levels, downstream enterprises' acceptance of current quotations has weakened markedly. Some enterprises have chosen to postpone purchases and wait for premiums to pull back before restocking, while actual intraday transactions remain mainly driven by rigid demand. Meanwhile, as the market enters September, a new procurement cycle is about to start, and some downstream enterprises and traders have restocking demand, which may provide some support to the lower end of spot premiums. Overall, supported by elevated backwardation spreads and tight availability of cargoes, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain at high premiums tomorrow. However, the dampening effect of high premiums on downstream purchases is gradually strengthening, so room for further rapid rises in premiums may be limited and premiums are likely to consolidate at highs.

Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru signed a joint declaration on strategic minerals on August 28, seeking to strengthen regional cooperation in critical mineral resources including lithium and copper. The four countries plan to promote cooperation in mineral development and investment and seek technical and financial support from multilateral institutions. The initiative also aims to encourage collaboration between the public and private sectors in research, innovation and capacity building. With the four countries collectively holding significant global copper and lithium resources, the initiative is aimed at strengthening South America’s position in global energy-transition mineral supply chains and enhancing the region’s attractiveness as a long-term supplier of critical minerals.