Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-5-25)

According to foreign media reports, Chilean copper producer Antofagasta has lowered its 2026 copper production guidance following a weather-related shutdown at its Los Pelambres mine, reducing expected output at a time when global copper mine supply remains under pressure.​ Antofagasta now expects to produce 625,000–655,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, compared with its previous guidance of 650,000–700,000 tonnes. The revised range lowers the midpoint of the company's production outlook by 35,000 tonnes and reduces the upper end of its forecast by 45,000 tonnes.​ The downgrade follows the temporary shutdown of Los Pelambres in July after extreme rainfall affected Chile's Coquimbo Region. Although no significant damage was reported to major infrastructure, repairs are required to some pipeline platforms and water-management systems following the disruption.​ Despite lower production, stronger copper prices supported Antofagasta's financial performance during the first half of 2026. EBITDA increased 27% year on year to $2.84 billion, while operating cash flow rose 53% to $2.77 billion. First-half cash costs declined 8% year on year to $1.22/lb, although the company previously indicated that full-year costs are expected to increase amid persistently elevated fuel prices.​ From a copper-market perspective, the guidance reduction represents a further downward adjustment to expected mine supply from Chile, the world's largest copper-producing country. The disruption at Los Pelambres also highlights the continued vulnerability of near-term supply to operational and weather-related interruptions, with Antofagasta's reduced production outlook adding to existing constraints on global copper mine growth.

US consumer demand cooled notably in July, and retail sales data came in far below expectations, prompting more cautious market assessments of H2 consumer resilience.US Census Bureau data released Friday showed that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the largest monthly decline since May 2025 and well below market expectations of a 0.1% increase. Lower auto purchases and a pullback in online retail were the main drags.

Chile plans to implement a package of reforms to improve legal certainty, streamline regulatory processes, and attract investment and mineral exploration, in a bid to raise the country’s annual copper production to 6 million mt.Chile’s Mining Minister Daniel Mas said at a seminar: “Chile’s copper mine production has stagnated, and annual production has fluctuated between 5 million mt and 5.5 million mt in recent years. Compared with other international mining jurisdictions that attract global capital by improving their institutional frameworks, Chile is gradually losing its competitive advantage.”