Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-5-24)

Published: May 24, 2017 09:38

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Market will eye US crude oil stocks, US April existing home sales and Germany June Gfk consumer confidence index today.

SHANGHAI, May 24 (SMM) –Market will eye US crude oil stocks, US April existing home sales and Germany June Gfk consumer confidence index today.

US annualized new home sales fell back from nearly 9-year high in April, but this does not indicate US housing market has entered recession. This is mainly because US labor market remains healthy and home prices remain high and house inventories remain tight. As such, the fall in new home sales is not because of poor demand. Existing home sales are expected to fall as well in April.

Germany’s private sector recorded the fastest growth in over six years in May, due to stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity. This means the largest economy in Europe will maintain strong growth momentum in Q2. Germany Gfk consumer confidence index should stay high in June.

The US Fed will release minutes for May policy meeting at 2 am tomorrow. Some analysts expect the minutes to dispel doubt over rate hike in June. Although possibility for rate hike in June dropped because of political worries, minutes for May policy meeting may raise possibility for rate hike in June.

US API crude oil stocks fell last week, but the decline was smaller than expected. Gasoline and refined oil stocks fell sharply. US crude oil futures prices for July delivery rose at first and then fell back after release of last week’s US API crude oil stocks.

See SMM price forecast, please click: SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (May 24, 2017)

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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