SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index: China Copper Demand to Fall in May 2017

Published: May 16, 2017 11:49

Save

The final SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index (SMMCDSI) was -24.53 in April, better than preliminary data of -43.09.

SHANGHAI, May 16 (SMM) – The final SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index (SMMCDSI) was -32.59 in March, below preliminary reading of -30.65, and the final index was -24.53 in April, better than preliminary data of -43.09. SMM expects the index to come in at -29.53 in May as downstream demand will be negatively affected by the upcoming off-demand season.

SMM survey finds that the average operation rate at domestic copper processing enterprises was 74.47 per cent in April, up 2.41 per cent on a monthly basis, and flat with the level seen a year ago.

In April, large domestic copper tube/pipe producers ran at full rates thanks to robust demand from home appliance sector, and production at copper plate/strip, sheet and foil producers held stable, according to SMM survey. Utilization rates at copper rod producers grew on a monthly basis in April, but remained below the level seen in past years, and producers in the survey sample expressed pessimism over this year’s operation rate.

Production at copper rod producers is estimated to fall in May, and this will drag down overall utilization rates at domestic copper processing enterprises to fall to 74.03 per cent in May, SMM foresees. (For details, please see SMM Copper Monthly Report)

Month	1	2	3	4	5	6
2017 SMMCDSI	78.88	77.13	-32.59	-24.53	-29.53	-
2016 SMMCDSI	83.25	30.93	63.72	36.47	3.39	-5.96

The SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index (SMMCDSI) is an objective and quantitative method of evaluation of copper demand in China, and the index is issued around 15 every month, and the issuing date will likely be advanced for business development in the future.

The SMMCDSI index defines the spread between published data of refined copper cathode and scrap copper supply in China, and SMM surveyed and estimated data of domestic copper downstream producers. After normalization, the spread is called the Surprise. When the reading is in positive territory, it indicates that copper demand is above market expectation, and when the reading is above 50, it indicates a high chance for copper futures prices to rise; when the reading is in negative territory, it indicates that copper demand is below market expectation, and when the reading is below -50, it indicates a high chance for copper futures prices to fall.

For news cooperation, please contact us by email: sallyzhang@smm.cn or service.en@smm.cn.

SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index SMMCDSI china copper demand

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 min ago

Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Aug 19)

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 19 Aug , 2026

1 min ago

9 mins ago

Lundin Hit by Another Winter Storm, Caserones Full-Year Copper Production Guidance Lowered by 10kt [SMM Analysis]

[Lundin Hit by Winter Storm Again, Caserones Full-Year Copper Production Guidance Lowered by 10kt] Lundin Mining lowered its 2026 copper production guidance for the Caserones mine by 10kt to 120,000-130,000mt and raised its cash cost guidance, as a second winter storm in Chile's Atacama region again disrupted power supply and production resumption efforts at the mine. The company also cut its full-year consolidated copper production guidance to 300,000-325,000mt. This disruption, combined with weaker overall copper production in Chile, has intensified market attention on the pace of copper ore supply recovery in H2.

9 mins ago

1 hour ago

Copper Price Pullback Drives Demand Improvement; Warrant Cargo Outflows Weigh on SHFE Copper Premiums [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, the price center of the SHFE copper 2609 contract is expected to move notably lower during the day from the previous trading day, driving the release of downstream dip-buying demand, and purchase sentiment in Shanghai is expected to rebound markedly. SMM has learned that orders for some downstream enterprises have improved notably WoW, and their purchase willingness for copper cathode has strengthened accordingly, with market trading activity picking up somewhat. However, some warrant cargo has gradually flowed into the spot market, increasing the available supply. Suppliers have been continuously lowering their quotes to facilitate transactions, and the downstream's bargaining willingness has been evident, weighing on spot premiums. Meanwhile, the available supply of high-quality copper remains scarce, and the backwardation spread has widened, still providing some support for quotes of certain brands. Overall, under the combined effect of the copper price pullback boosting demand improvement but the outflow of warrant cargo replenishing spot supply, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2609 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

1 hour ago