Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-5-11)

SHANGHAI, May 11 (SMM) – Eyes should be on US’s annual PPI in April, initial jobless claim from the week ending May 5, and UK’s March industrial production on Thursday. Base metals were volatile sharply both on SHFE and LME markets on Wednesday’s night trading, but shorts still dominated the market. Base metals will meet strong resistance on Thursday.

As US’s annual PPI increased constantly from October 2015, a small decline in April will not waver US’s positive inflation data. This, combined with optimistic anticipation over initial jobless claim, will shore up US dollar index. But, the growth will be limited by medium Bollinger brand.

SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (May 11, 2017)

The Bank of England (BOE) will release rate decision on Thursday. UK’s economic data released recently were positive, but BOE, considering uncertainties in June’s presidential election and Brexit negotiation, is expected to hold rate unchanged in May’s meeting. Attention should be on clues from ECB’s comment on rate decision and its Governor’s speech.

The UK’s economy is higher than market forecast after Brexit with CPI rising above official target at 2%, despite of sharp decline in GDP growth in Q1 2017. Hence, market participants expect UK to be the second country to tighten monetary policy, following the US.

If OPEC’s monthly crude oil market report releases any positive news, it will buoy crude oil price.