Southwest China to See Concentrated Release of New and Restarted Aluminum Capacity, SMM Says

[SMM Analysis: China’s Aluminum Foil Exports Edged Down 0.74% YoY in January-February, Geopolitical Conflicts Disrupted the Middle East Trade Chain] According to customs data, China’s total aluminum foil exports in January-February 2026 (tariff codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) reached 214,800 mt, down 0.74% YoY from 2025, of which exports were 121,100 mt in January, up 2% YoY, and 93,700 mt in February, down 4% YoY.

[SMM Analysis: Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip Exports up 16.6% YoY in January-February, to Face Dual Pressure] According to customs data, China’s total exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip reached 509,300 mt in January-February 2026, up 16.65% YoY from 2025. Of this, exports were 278,500 mt in January, up 16% YoY, and 230,800 mt in February, up 17% YoY.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has driven international oil prices sharply higher, a trend that has deeply unsettled Wall Street. Wall Street is concerned that US inflation could reaccelerate as a result, forcing the US Fed to delay interest rate cuts and even shift its policy direction toward rate hikes. Bank of America revealed that "whether the Fed will raise interest rates this year" has become a key question its clients have frequently asked in recent days. BofA noted that although the possibility of a rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out, three conditions would need to be met for one to occur: the labour market remains stable, inflation worsens further, and Powell continues to serve as Fed Chairman.