Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-4-27)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 27 (SMM) – Profit at China’s large industrials during January-March, US March durable goods orders, seasonally adjusted pending home sales in March and the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week will be released today. European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce their interest rate decision today. Base metals consolidated at highs overnight and diverged. Such situations will continue today.

Value-added at China’s large industrials during January-March rose 7.6% YoY, much higher than expected. Profit at China’s state-owned companies and SOE holding companies in January-March jumped 37.3% YoY. This bodes well for profit at China’s large industrials during January-March, which will bolster commodity marketSMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Apr. 27, 2017)

US March durable goods orders may fall to 1.3%, the weakest performance in 3 months. If the result turns out to be downbeat, the US dollar will take a hit.

The ECB and BOJ may leave interest rate untouched. Despite improvement in Japanese economy, the BOJ is still worrying about inflation outlook, so is the ECB. So, the market will keep an eye on ECB President Mario Dragi’s statement which may shed some light on whether they will push tightening measures.