Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-4-6)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 6 (SMM) – Attention should be on US’s March challenger layoffs and initial jobless claim from the week ending Mar. 31 on Thursday. US Federal Reserve’s March monetary policy minutes released on Thursday morning will affect base metals during Asian trading hours. Only SHFE 1705 zinc closes with losses on Wednesday’s night trading, but all base metals dropped from highs. Base metals are expected to be divergent further.

US’s March nonfarm payroll report will be released soon. If US’s March challenger layoffs and initial jobless claim are in normal range, this will strengthen expectation over positive US’s March nonfarm payrolls.

SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Apr. 6, 2017)

According to US Federal Reserve’s March monetary policy minutes, most officials expected to raise rate gradually and pointed out that it is appropriate to adjust reinvestment policy in late 2017. Fed should cut USD 4.5 trillion of balance sheet late the year as long as economy is positive. Meanwhile, Fed issued a pie chart about uncertainties for the first time, which shows 8 officials expect GDP growth to decline and 11 officials expect PCE to drop, sending US dollar down.

European Central Bank will release monetary policy minutes of March’s meeting on Thursday and ECB President and officials will release speeches. Divergences among ECB officials increased recently, attracting market attention.