SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Mar. 30, 2017)

The Thai Ministry of Industry recently intercepted 714 illegal waste containers at Laem Chabang Port and initiated repatriation procedures, while simultaneously shutting down over 100 non-compliant and high-pollution dismantling plants in Q1 2026. Since the global supply chain restructuring in 2025, Thailand has emerged as a critical hub with an annual copper scrap export volume of 332,000 physical tonnes. Should Thailand’s environmental oversight remain under high-pressure, the market widely expects the Asian copper scrap supply side to face increasing tightness.

Australian mining company BHP has outlined a global pipeline of copper projects that could expand its production capacity by 1.8–2 million tonnes over the next decade, in response to rising global demand. BHP also projects that global copper demand will increase from approximately 34 million tonnes per year in 2026 to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.