SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Mar. 14, 2017)

According to Chile customs export data, Chile's total exports of copper ore and concentrates in September 2026 were 925,600 mt in physical content, down 27.64% MoM and down 32.41% YoY. Of this, exports to China were 580,800 mt in physical content, accounting for 62.75% of total exports, down 20.39% MoM and down 43.50% YoY; exports to Japan were 104,500 mt in physical content, accounting for 11.29%, down 68.47% MoM and down 18.86% YoY; exports to South Korea were 63,900 mt in physical content, accounting for 6.90%, up 53.60% MoM and down 25.67% YoY. China, Japan, and South Korea were the top three export destinations for the month, together accounting for 80.94% of total exports.

According to Chile customs export data, Chile's total copper cathode exports in September 2026 were 121,900 mt, up 24.94% MoM and up 4.44% YoY. Of this, exports to the US were 75,311 mt, accounting for 61.76% of total exports, up 38.38% MoM and up 66.51% YoY; exports to Brazil were 15,947 mt, accounting for 13.08%, up 11.28% MoM and up 4.72% YoY; exports to China were 10,362 mt, accounting for 8.50%, down 11.03% MoM and down 53.68% YoY. The US was the largest export destination for the month, with the US, Brazil, and China together accounting for 83.33% of total exports.

[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, suppliers continued to lower quotes during the day to facilitate transactions, but no large-scale inflow of previously delivered warrants into the spot market has been seen yet, and available supply in the Shanghai region remains relatively limited. Some delivered cargoes are expected to be released gradually from this afternoon to tomorrow. If warrants are canceled and flow into the spot market, the tightness on the supply side may ease somewhat, putting some pressure on spot premiums. Meanwhile, some suppliers have limited willingness to sell at low prices, and sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling persists, providing some support to spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises overall still mainly make just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high copper prices and high premiums and little willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, Shanghai spot premiums are expected to continue to consolidate at highs tomorrow. If the outflow of delivered warrants increases, the center of premiums may edge lower further. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the pace of warrant outflows, changes in the next-month backwardation, and actual downstream purchasing performance.