UNITED KINGDOM March 07 2017 11:34 AM
LONDON (Scrap Register): Natixis analysts said that they maintain a bearish outlook for gold as markets factor in expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike U.S. interest rates in March, but “we do acknowledge the increased global risks that could benefit gold.”
As rates rise, gold would be hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields and an increased “opportunity cost” of holding gold, Natixis said in a research note.
The latter is the lost interest earnings from instead holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. The firm’s full-year gold forecast is $1,150 an ounce.
Still, Natixis said that there are two potential situations that could benefit gold. “The new U.S. administration has left some investors unsure about future prospects,” Natixis added.
“At the same time, Europe is going through tense times; after the unexpected Brexit and Trump election victories, a win by Marine le Pen does not seem entirely implausible. Should this happen, the future of the European project would be in jeopardy,” the noted.