China Sees Smaller Declines in Nickel Ore Inventories, SMM Reports, with Price to Advance

According to SMM market research, a major stainless steel mill purchased over 10,000 mt of high-grade Nickel Pig Iron yesterday, with nickel content above 11%, at 1,040 yuan/mtu on a delivered basis.

[9.29 Morning Meeting Summary] US Treasuries had their worst week in 19 months. Last Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.22% intraday (a new high since 2007), and the 30-year broke above 5.5% (a new high since 2004), rising for four consecutive weeks. Japanese and US officials released signals that "a weak yen is problematic," and the yen rebounded more than 1% intraday. US stocks stopped falling and rebounded on Friday, with the Dow up 0.93% and the S&P 500 up 0.51%. Gold futures halted a four-day losing streak but still fell more than 2% for the week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2610) opened lower and moved lower in early trading, closing the morning session at 123,640 yuan/mt, down 1.21%. The surge in US Treasury yields above 5.2% and a strong US dollar brought macro pressure back to the forefront, compounded by significant LME inventory buildup during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, leading to a catch-up decline in SHFE nickel at today's open. Funds may maintain a wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the holiday. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 123,000-126,000 yuan/mt.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is currently affecting Palawan, the Visayas and Mindanao, bringing cloudy conditions, scattered rains and thunderstorms. ITCZ expected continue affecting Caraga, Northern Mindanao and most of the Visayas through September 29, with rain and thunderstorms potentially continuing into October 2 due to an additional weather system. For the Philippine nickel industry, Palawan, Surigao and Homonhon may see intermittent moderate to heavy rainfall, which could temporarily slow mine-road transportation, ore barging and vessel loading. Potentially, it could trigger localized flooding or landslides in affected areas. SMM views that The ITCZ is currently a weather-related operational risk rather than a broad supply disruption. Short-duration heavy rain could cause temporary delays in mining and logistics, but the overall impact will depend on rainfall intensity and persistence at individual mining and loading sites.