Lead Price Forecast, January 2017: Supply Exceeds Demand for Most of 2016

by Kyle Fitzsimmons on JANUARY 19, 2017

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group released its initial report for 2017, which found world refined lead metal supply exceeded demand during the first 11 months of last year with total reported stock levels increasing during that same time frame.

The ILZSG report identified reduced output in China, India, Australia and the U.S. as contributing to the overall reduction in global lead mine production, to the tune of 7.5%, over the first 11 months of last year when compared to the same time frame in 2015.

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The ILZSG states: “World production of refined lead metal decreased by 1.2%. This was primarily due to a fall in Chinese production which more than balanced increases in Australia, Kazakhstan and the Republic of Korea (South Korea).”

Furthermore, the 9.1% reduction in Chinese demand was offset, in part, by a 9.5% rise in European usage.

“Chinese imports of lead contained in lead concentrates totaled 697,000 metric tons, a decline of 24.6% compared to the first eleven months of 2015,” concluded the ILZSG’s January report on lead.

Lead Buyers Saw Ample Opportunity to End 2016

Just last month, our own Raul de Frutos wrote about metal buyers finding good opportunities to time their purchases with prices pulling back following a bullish run. For lead in particular, de Frutos wrote:

“Zinc’s cousin, lead, is also retracing near an area where we should see investors coming in to support prices. If this year’s bull market is set to continue, which for now we continue to expect it to do so, lead buyers will find a good opportunity to time their purchases if prices rebound at these levels.”

How will lead and base metals fare in 2017? You can find a more in-depth copper price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds: