Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-1-18)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 18 (SMM) – Attention should be on a series of economic data on Wednesday, including Germany’s CPI in December 2016 on an annual basis, UK’s 3-month ILO unemployment rate in November and unemployment rate in December, CPIs and core CPIs from US and European after seasonal adjustment and US’s 30-year MBA mortgage rate from the week ending January 13. Base metals dropped on Tuesday’s night trading. Capitals will keep outflowing markets due to taking profits by market players with nearing of 2017 Chinese New Year holiday, despite mixed fundamentals. Base metals will be divergent on Wednesday and there will be a possibility for metals to rally from lows.

Price Divergence to Continue, with Capitals Outflow, SMM Says

Pound will rise as Prime Minister of UK Theresa May is unlikely to give hard Brexit plans, according to her speech on Tuesday. US dollar is expected to move lower. US’s core CPI will increase slightly in December after seasonal adjustment and US’s industrial production will reverse to positive growth from negative growth in December on a monthly basis. However, US’s NAHB housing market index is expected to be lower than previous level in January 2017. San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman will give a speech on Wednesday and Dallas Fed will also release an address.   

Oil will remain rising momentum on Wednesday with falling US dollar. But, US’s and Russian oil producers will release prediction on increasing output, offsetting positive effect from falling US dollar and oil output reduction agreement from OPEC members. So, any rise of oil price will be limited. Eyes should be on OPEC’s monthly crude oil market report on Wednesday’s night.